Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Real Betis
75% means we estimate about 75 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: ŠK Slovan Bratislava 11% · Draw 15% · Real Betis 75%
2 · Understand the price
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
10.00 decimal odds
Unibet nl · US +900
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 10.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 11%; the price implies 10%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Drawmodel 27% · market 15% (model vs market +12.3pp)
model
market
Real Betismodel 37% · market 75% (model vs market −38.1pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 6.1%
estimate 49% · price implies 47% · +4.3% expected returnif the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Betis the most likely outcome at 75%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 25%.
How does Clauseground predict ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– ŠK Slovan Bratislava held from 8.92 to 8.92 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
ŠK Slovan BratislavaDrawReal Betis
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 35–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Draw
Real Betis
Collected
888sport
8.50
6.00
1.29
Betclic
7.50
5.25
1.23
Betfair Sportsbook
8.50
6.00
1.25
Betfred
9.00
5.50
1.30
BetMGM
8.50
5.75
1.29
BetRivers
9.00
5.50
1.32
Betsson
9.60
6.40
1.26
BetUS
8.50
5.75
1.29
Betway
8.00
6.00
1.25
Bovada
9.00
6.00
1.30
BoyleSports
9.50
5.50
1.25
Casumo
8.50
6.00
1.30
Codere
8.80
5.80
1.30
Coolbet
9.50
6.00
1.30
Coral
8.00
5.50
1.28
DraftKings
8.50
6.00
1.28
Fanatics
9.00
5.75
1.29
FanDuel
8.00
6.00
1.27
Grosvenor
9.00
5.40
1.30
GTbets
9.06
5.96
1.30
Ladbrokes
8.00
5.50
1.28
LeoVegas
9.00
5.40
1.30
LeoVegas
7.50
5.60
1.26
LiveScore Bet
8.50
5.25
1.30
Marathonbet
9.30
6.00
1.30
NordicBet
9.80
Best price: 6.50★
1.27
Paddy Power
8.50
6.00
1.25
Pinnacle
8.92
6.43
1.26
PMU
8.00
4.90
1.24
Sky Bet
8.50
6.00
1.29
Unibet
Best price: 10.00★
5.80
Best price: 1.34★
Unibet
10.00
5.80
1.34
Unibet
8.00
5.75
1.27
Unibet
7.40
5.20
1.17
Virgin Bet
8.50
5.25
1.30
William Hill
8.50
6.00
1.29
Winamax
8.50
6.25
1.23
Winamax
8.50
6.25
1.18
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 4.7%
– Over 2.5 held from 1.36 to 1.36 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Collected
Betsson
Best price: 1.37★
Best price: 3.13★
NordicBet
1.37
3.10
William Hill
1.36
3.00
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%
– Both teams score held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.67
Best price: 2.10★
Coral
1.70
2.05
Ladbrokes
1.70
2.05
LeoVegas
1.67
2.10
LiveScore Bet
No-vig reference market puts Over 3.5 at 49%; best collected price 2.12 at leovegas_se implies 47% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Match result+0.6pp differencereference market
10.00 at Unibet
no-vig 9.47·38 books priced this outcome·no 24h reference
estimate 11% · price implies 10% · +5.6% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts ŠK Slovan Bratislava at 11%; best collected price 10.00 at unibet_nl implies 10% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–16 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
1.85
Codere
1.87
1.80
Coolbet
1.93
1.85
Grosvenor
2.06
1.70
GTbets
1.94
1.85
LeoVegas
Best price: 2.12★
1.74
LeoVegas
1.83
1.77
Marathonbet
1.96
1.86
Pinnacle
1.94
1.88
PMU
1.96
1.62
Unibet
2.12
1.74
Unibet
2.10
1.73
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 3 hours in the window had no collection at all and are drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
1.70
2.06
Virgin Bet
1.70
2.06
William Hill
Best price: 1.75★
2.05
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.