Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Barcelona
76% means we estimate about 76 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Barcelona 76% · Draw 15% · Villarreal 9%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
8.00 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +700
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 8.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 15%; the price implies 13%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Barcelonamodel 60% · market 76% (model vs market −15.6pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 23% · market 15% (model vs market +7.4pp)
model
market
Villarrealmodel 17% · market 9% (model vs market +8.2pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 7.6%
estimate 15% · price implies 13% · +21.7% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Draw at 15%; best collected price 8.00 at fanduel implies 13% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Barcelona the most likely outcome at 76%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 24%.
How does Clauseground predict Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
▲ Villarreal drifted from 9.99 to 10.07 (+0.8%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
BarcelonaDrawVillarreal
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 34–37 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 37 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Barcelona
Draw
Villarreal
Collected
Betfair Sportsbook
1.17
7.50
10.50
Betfred
1.22
7.00
Best price: 11.00★
BetMGM
Best price: 1.27★
7.00
9.00
BetRivers
1.22
7.00
10.50
Betsson
1.21
7.20
11.00
BetUS
1.24
6.25
11.00
BetVictor
1.17
6.50
7.50
Bovada
1.24
6.25
11.00
BoyleSports
1.20
6.50
9.00
Casumo
1.18
6.50
9.00
Codere
1.23
7.00
9.60
Coolbet
1.25
6.25
11.00
Coral
1.25
7.00
9.00
DraftKings
1.24
6.50
9.50
Everygame
1.22
6.00
10.00
Fanatics
1.24
7.00
9.50
FanDuel
1.17
Best price: 8.00★
9.50
Grosvenor
1.21
7.00
10.00
Ladbrokes
1.25
7.00
8.50
LeoVegas
1.21
7.00
8.50
LeoVegas
1.21
6.75
9.50
LiveScore Bet
1.21
6.75
9.50
Marathonbet
1.25
6.70
10.75
NordicBet
1.21
7.10
11.00
Paddy Power
1.17
7.50
10.00
Pinnacle
1.23
6.11
10.07
PMU
1.16
6.25
9.00
Sky Bet
1.20
7.50
10.00
Tipico
1.20
7.50
10.50
Unibet
1.24
7.50
11.00
Unibet
1.24
7.50
11.00
Unibet
1.22
7.00
9.50
Unibet
1.12
6.20
8.00
Virgin Bet
1.20
6.50
9.00
William Hill
1.20
6.50
9.50
Winamax
1.20
7.25
9.00
Winamax
1.15
6.25
9.00
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 4.5
11 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 4.5
2.29 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 4.5
1.64 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Outcome
Best collected price
Collected
No-vig reference
Difference
Over 4.5
2.29Marathonbet
—
—
Under 4.5
1.64Marathonbet
—
—
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price— 11 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 4.5
Under 4.5
Collected
BetMGM
2.20
1.61
BetRivers
2.25
1.62
Codere
2.14
1.61
Grosvenor
2.25
1.62
LeoVegas
2.25
1.62
Total goals 4
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%
estimate 23% · price implies 22% · +4.2% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Under 2.5 at 23%; best collected price 4.63 at betsson implies 22% — a +0.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
LeoVegas
2.12
1.62
Marathonbet
Best price: 2.29★
Best price: 1.64★
PMU
2.12
1.53
Tipico
2.20
1.60
Unibet
2.25
1.62
Unibet
2.25
1.62
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 4Under 4
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
1.78
2.00
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
1.49
2.45
Paddy Power
Best price: 1.57★
2.25
Sky Bet
1.57
2.25
Virgin Bet
1.49
2.45
William Hill
1.57
2.30
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.