Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Real Madrid
79% means we estimate about 79 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Real Madrid 79% · Draw 14% · Celta Vigo 7%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
7.80 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +680
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 7.80 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 14%; the price implies 13%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Real Madridmodel 69% · market 79% (model vs market −10.4pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 20% · market 14% (model vs market +6.3pp)
model
market
Celta Vigomodel 11% · market 7% (model vs market +4.1pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 4.3%
estimate 14% · price implies 13% · +8.0% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Draw at 14%; best collected price 7.80 at tipico_de implies 13% — a +1.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Madrid the most likely outcome at 79%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 21%.
How does Clauseground predict Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– Real Madrid held from 1.21 to 1.21 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Real MadridDrawCelta Vigo
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Real Madrid
Draw
Celta Vigo
Collected
Betfair Sportsbook
1.17
7.00
12.00
Betfred
1.20
7.00
13.00
BetMGM
1.21
7.25
12.00
BetRivers
1.19
7.00
13.00
Betsson
1.17
7.40
Best price: 14.50★
BetUS
1.20
6.75
13.00
BetVictor
1.14
6.50
11.00
Betway
1.20
6.50
11.00
Bovada
1.20
6.75
13.00
BoyleSports
1.18
6.50
11.00
Casumo
1.17
6.50
12.00
Codere
1.20
6.80
13.00
Coolbet
1.20
7.50
12.00
Coral
1.20
7.50
12.00
DraftKings
1.20
6.50
11.00
Everygame
1.18
6.25
12.00
Fanatics
1.20
7.00
13.00
FanDuel
1.17
7.00
11.00
Grosvenor
1.19
7.00
12.50
Ladbrokes
1.20
7.00
12.00
LeoVegas
1.18
6.75
11.00
LeoVegas
1.18
6.75
11.50
LiveScore Bet
1.18
6.75
11.50
Marathonbet
Best price: 1.22★
6.65
13.75
NordicBet
1.17
7.30
14.50
Paddy Power
1.17
7.00
11.00
Pinnacle
1.21
6.92
13.81
PMU
1.13
6.25
11.00
Sky Bet
1.20
7.00
11.00
Tipico
1.17
Best price: 7.80★
13.00
Unibet
1.21
7.50
14.00
Unibet
1.21
7.50
14.00
Unibet
1.19
6.50
12.00
Unibet
1.09
6.00
10.00
Virgin Bet
1.17
6.50
11.00
William Hill
1.20
6.50
12.00
Winamax
1.17
7.00
12.00
Winamax
1.13
6.75
12.00
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 3.8%
– Over 2.5 held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Collected
Betsson
1.39
Best price: 3.07★
NordicBet
1.37
3.00
William Hill
Best price: 1.40★
2.90
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 14–16 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Codere
1.94
1.74
Coolbet
2.00
Best price: 1.88★
Grosvenor
1.92
1.85
LeoVegas
1.92
1.75
LeoVegas
1.92
1.85
Marathonbet
Best price: 2.03★
1.80
Pinnacle
2.00
1.86
PMU
1.81
1.75
Tipico
1.85
1.87
Unibet
1.92
1.85
Unibet
1.92
1.85
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
1.87
1.84
Paddy Power
1.95
1.75
Sky Bet
1.91
1.80
Virgin Bet
1.87
1.84
William Hill
1.91
Best price: 1.85★
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.