Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
AS Roma
73% means we estimate about 73 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Parma 10% · Draw 17% · AS Roma 73%
2 · Understand the price
Parma
10.50 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +950
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 10.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 10%; the price implies 10%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Parmamodel 32% · market 10% (model vs market +22.2pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 28% · market 17% (model vs market +10.9pp)
model
market
AS Romamodel 40% · market 73% (model vs market −33.1pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 39 books quote this market · margin removed 4.0%
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AS Roma the most likely outcome at 73%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 27%.
How does Clauseground predict Parma vs AS Roma?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– Parma held from 9.65 to 9.65 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
ParmaDrawAS Roma
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–39 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 39 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Parma
Draw
AS Roma
Collected
888sport
8.50
5.00
1.30
Betfair Sportsbook
9.00
5.00
1.29
Betfred
9.00
5.50
1.30
BetMGM
9.50
5.50
1.31
BetRivers
9.50
5.20
1.30
Betsson
9.80
5.65
1.29
BetVictor
8.00
5.25
1.25
Betway
8.50
5.50
1.29
Bovada
9.00
5.40
1.30
BoyleSports
8.50
5.00
1.29
Caesars
9.00
5.25
1.31
Casumo
8.50
5.25
1.25
Codere
9.20
5.40
1.31
Coolbet
9.50
5.60
1.31
Coral
9.50
5.50
1.30
DraftKings
8.00
5.00
1.27
Everygame
8.50
5.25
1.28
Fanatics
9.00
5.50
1.29
FanDuel
8.00
5.50
1.29
Grosvenor
9.00
5.10
1.29
Ladbrokes
9.00
5.50
1.30
LeoVegas
9.00
5.10
1.29
LeoVegas
8.00
5.40
1.27
LiveScore Bet
8.50
5.00
1.28
Marathonbet
9.40
5.50
1.32
NordicBet
9.70
5.60
1.28
Paddy Power
8.50
5.00
1.25
Pinnacle
9.65
5.79
1.31
PMU
8.50
4.80
1.24
Sky Bet
8.50
5.25
1.30
Tipico
Best price: 10.50★
5.50
1.28
Unibet
10.50
5.50
Best price: 1.33★
Unibet
10.00
5.40
1.32
Unibet
9.00
5.50
1.29
Unibet
7.80
4.90
1.18
Virgin Bet
8.50
5.00
1.28
William Hill
8.50
5.00
1.30
Winamax
8.00
Best price: 5.80★
1.28
Winamax
8.00
5.50
1.23
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 10 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%
– Over 3 held from 1.90 to 1.90 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price— 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Over 3
Under 3
Collected
Bovada
Best price: 1.93★
1.89
Casumo
1.83
1.85
Coolbet
1.85
Best price: 2.04★
Pinnacle
1.90
1.97
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%
– Both teams score held from 1.91 to 1.91 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.91
1.80
Coral
Best price: 1.95★
1.80
Ladbrokes
1.91
1.80
LeoVegas
1.91
1.80
LiveScore Bet
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Best price:
★
2.40
NordicBet
1.50
2.48
PMU
1.49
2.23
Unibet
1.57
2.33
Unibet
1.57
2.33
William Hill
1.53
2.45
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
1.90
1.81
Paddy Power
1.85
Best price: 1.85★
Sky Bet
1.91
1.80
Virgin Bet
1.90
1.81
William Hill
1.91
1.85
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.