Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Lille
40% means we estimate about 40 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Lille 40% · Draw 29% · Lyon 31%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.55 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +255
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.55 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Lillemodel 44% · market 40% (model vs market +4.1pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 27% · market 29% (model vs market −2.8pp)
model
market
Lyonmodel 30% · market 31% (model vs market −1.3pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 40 books quote this market · margin removed 3.6%
estimate 53% · price implies 52% · +2.7% expected returnif the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win Lille vs Lyon?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lille the most likely outcome at 40%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 60%.
How does Clauseground predict Lille vs Lyon?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– Lille held from 2.43 to 2.43 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
LilleDrawLyon
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 35–40 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 40 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Lille
Draw
Lyon
Collected
888sport
2.30
3.30
2.90
Betfair Sportsbook
2.30
3.30
2.90
Betfred
2.30
3.20
2.88
BetMGM
2.35
3.30
3.00
BetRivers
2.28
3.35
3.00
Betsson
2.30
3.30
3.05
BetUS
2.30
3.30
3.00
BetVictor
2.15
3.20
2.80
Betway
2.30
3.20
2.90
Bovada
2.30
3.30
3.00
BoyleSports
2.20
3.30
2.80
Caesars
2.29
3.35
3.00
Casumo
2.25
3.20
3.00
Codere
2.37
3.20
3.05
Coolbet
2.35
3.40
3.00
Coral
2.37
3.30
3.00
DraftKings
2.35
3.25
3.00
Everygame
2.30
3.10
2.95
Fanatics
2.30
3.40
3.00
FanDuel
2.30
3.30
3.00
Grosvenor
2.25
3.35
2.95
Ladbrokes
2.30
3.30
3.00
LeoVegas
2.38
Best price: 3.55★
3.15
LeoVegas
2.30
3.25
2.90
LiveScore Bet
2.23
3.25
2.88
Marathonbet
2.33
3.50
3.05
NordicBet
2.32
3.35
3.05
Paddy Power
2.30
3.25
2.90
Pinnacle
Best price: 2.43★
3.28
3.13
PMU
2.14
3.15
2.80
Sky Bet
2.30
3.30
3.00
Tipico
2.30
3.10
Best price: 3.20★
Unibet
2.38
3.55
3.15
Unibet
2.35
3.25
3.00
Unibet
2.28
3.35
3.00
Unibet
2.00
3.10
2.85
Virgin Bet
2.23
3.25
2.88
William Hill
2.30
3.30
2.90
Winamax
2.30
3.30
2.90
Winamax
2.20
3.20
2.80
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 19 books quote this market · margin removed 3.3%
– Both teams score held from 1.80 to 1.80 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.73
2.00
Coral
1.75
2.00
Ladbrokes
1.73
2.00
LeoVegas
1.75
1.98
LiveScore Bet
1.68
No-vig reference market puts Under 2.5 at 53%; best collected price 1.93 at unibet_se implies 52% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Draw
Match result+1.3pp differencereference market
3.55 at LeoVegas
no-vig 3.40·40 books priced this outcome·no 24h reference
estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +4.5% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.55 at leovegas_se implies 28% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 16–19 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Casumo
1.95
1.73
Codere
1.96
1.73
Coolbet
2.01
1.78
Grosvenor
1.85
1.91
LeoVegas
1.95
1.73
LeoVegas
1.85
1.91
Marathonbet
1.96
1.86
NordicBet
2.00
1.78
Pinnacle
Best price: 2.07★
1.82
PMU
1.75
1.81
Tipico
1.95
1.80
Unibet
1.88
Best price: 1.93★
Unibet
1.85
1.91
William Hill
1.95
1.83
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Best price: 2.08★
Paddy Power
1.73
2.00
Sky Bet
1.73
2.00
Virgin Bet
1.68
2.08
William Hill
Best price: 1.80★
1.95
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.