Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano — market analysis & odds
Final score: 1–0
Final score: Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo Vallecano. Pre-match, Clauseground's combined estimate was Real Sociedad 52%, the draw 25%, Rayo Vallecano 23%. Real Sociedad won — an outcome we carried at 52%. That was the combined estimate's most likely single result.
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Pre-match model vs market
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Real Sociedad 7d, Rayo Vallecano 8d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Real Sociedad.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Questions
Who won Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Sociedad won: the final score was Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo Vallecano. Clauseground's pre-match blend carried that outcome at 52%. That probability described uncertainty; it did not promise the result.
How does Clauseground predict Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.